http://www.ceri.ca/images/stories/2013-06-10_CERI_Study_133_-_Oil_Sands_Update_2012-2046.pdf

May 2013
Canadian Energy Research Institute

Supply Cost Results

Based on these assumptions, the supply cost for the production of crude bitumen using primary recovery, SAGD, surface mining and extraction, and integrated mining and upgrading has been calculated for a hypothetical project. Figure 3.7 illustrates the supply costs for primary recovery, SAGD, mining and integrated mining. The plant gate supply costs, which exclude transportation and blending costs, are $30.32/bbl, $47.57/bbl, $99.02/bbl, and $68.30/bbl for primary recovery, SAGD, integrated mining and upgrading, and stand-alone mining, respectively. Comparison of costs from last year’s update indicates that the cost for a SAGD producer has risen by 6.3 percent, 10.9 percent for an integrated miner, and by 13.2 percent for a stand-alone mine.

After adjusting for blending and transportation, the WTI equivalent supply costs at Cushing for primary recovery is $58.61/bbl; for SAGD projects – $77.85/bbl, $103.16/bbl for integrated mining and upgrading projects, and $99.49/bbl for stand-alone mining projects.

While capital costs and the return on investment account for a substantial portion of the total supply cost, the province stands to gain $7.1 to $12.9 in royalty revenues for each barrel of oil produced on average, over the life of an oil sands project