Mr. Putin, 62, and Ms. Merkel, 60, were both shaped by their experiences of the Cold War, with radically different results. A theoretical physicist and the daughter of a pastor in East Germany, Ms. Merkel emerged as a conservative politician with an abiding commitment to the right to self-determination.

Mr. Putin “recognizes Merkel as the only really strong person in this crisis, not Obama,” said Stefan Meister, a Russia expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. “He believes Obama is a very weak politician.”

Ms. Merkel is also not easily provoked. “The alpha-male thing is something Putin always wins,” Mr. Forbrig said. “Merkel doesn’t go there. He’s driven nuts by the calmness that she has. It doesn’t give a surface for friction.”

The two leaders have no need for interpreters. Ms. Merkel speaks Russian after growing up in East Germany; Mr. Putin speaks German after serving as a KGB agent in Dresden. Their relationship is not close, experts say, but professional. There have been a few notable tensions along the way: Back in 2007, during a meeting at his country home, Mr. Putin reportedly let his black Labrador loose, knowing Ms. Merkel harbours a fear of large dogs.

Yet Mr. Putin appears to have miscalculated Ms. Merkel – and Germany. While the country has strong economic ties to Russia, to the tune of €77-billion ($107-billion) in annual trade, its government has been a leading voice in favour of sanctions. German business lobbies have complained vociferously about the impact of the trade restrictions, but Ms. Merkel has stated that the costs of the government’s policy to corporations are outweighed by the costs of doing nothing. The German public is backing her up. Ms. Merkel’s approval ratings, after nearly a decade as Chancellor, touched an all-time high in September. A poll conducted in November found that 77 per cent of Germans felt that Russia couldn’t be trusted as a partner.

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